Published On: Wed, Oct 16th, 2013

Opinion poll: Encouraging projections for Aam Aadmi Party

New Delhi: With barely two months left for the Delhi assembly elections, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is gradually gaining ground and as a result the election could be a triangular contest between the ruling Congress, the main opposition BJP and the new entrant AAP.

As per the opinion poll the AAP will win 26% of the votes and 18 seats in the 70-member assembly

As per the opinion poll the AAP will win 26% of the votes and 18 seats in the 70-member assembly

These projections have emerged after an opinion poll conducted by AC Nielson for the television news channel ABP News. The net outcome, the poll projects, is likely to be a hung assembly with no party in a position to form the government.

As per the opinion poll the AAP will win 26% of the votes and 18 seats in the 70-member assembly. The same agency’s poll in August had predicted 15% of votes and just 8 seats for AAP.

It also indicates that Arvind Kejriwal is the most preferred CM candidate with 32% backing him, against 27% each for CM Sheila Dikshit and BJP’s Vijay Goel.

The poll projects that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 28 seats and 34% votes, while Congress will finish second with 22 seats and 27% of the votes.

For both these parties, the latest seat tallies are down from what was predicted in the August survey. That round had estimated that BJP would win 32 seats and Congress 27.

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  1. Indian says:

    The percentage of Delhi voters to vote the AAP is realistically and drastically much higher than this report. This is a kind of perception management that is practiced all the time to sway fringe voters before any polling exercise. The model of opinion poll used for marketing surveys may not be applicable for predicting or projecting electoral trends. The flaws of this report are :

    (a) does not give the sample size of the survey nor the type of sampling methods used for the poll

    (b) does not detail the segments of the population surveyed. A lot of Mr. K’s electoral support comes from sections not using the electronic media for such polls

    (c) does not give the questions that were asked (open or close ended)

    (d) data is not raw data and as such the reader is not aware if the percentages are cumulative or representative for each poll cluster (no mean and SD); just says ‘people’ and there are no links for anybody to check these facts. Are we really that naïve not to even think about these technicalities of the survey. One feels stupid to see all the TV channels taking the country for a ride, not even bothering to validate the survey/poll. Good.

    People should actually ask what were the expenses towards the conduction of this poll and who picked up the tabs. It is time that we have someone like Arvind at the helm of public affairs in the country. He is the only one around who is talking accountability in all spheres of public life. Good luck AAP. Poll or no poll, you are the champions all the way, hands down.

    Please ask yourself the reliability of the surveys even before looking at the results, even it favors your wishes, please.

    JAI HIND!

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